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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence wins the award. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

But the latest field is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and longtime strugglers improving in unison. During an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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